MY WORLD:
You want a real peek behind the curtain? You want to join me in the lab? Jimmy, you ask, how do you come up with such pristine betting slates week after week after week after week?!?!? Well, because I love my readers (reader…you love your Dad, Jimmy) I’m going to walk you through the exact process I go through to make my gambling picks for this weekend’s slate of college football games. Please prepare yourself for some heavy mathematics talk, as there are complicated models, and systems, and excel pivot tables involved in the Jimmyschair gambling process.
Pull up the Fanduel and ESPN Apps
Jesus, I’ve lost people already, haven’t I? I KNEW THE TECHNICALITIES WOULD TRIP PEOPLE UP! So, you open your phone and you tap the Fanduel picture and the ESPN picture (he thinks his readers are the kind of people who have to wear helmets all the time!). This very critical first step of building a gambling slate consists of scanning the early games and also seeing which games are on television. Who wants to gamble on games they can’t watch? I mean, don’t get me wrong, I do gamble on games I don’t watch, but I need the MAIN game I’m gambling on to include a few bets that I can watch break my heart live.
Focus on the Early Slate (11am) of Games so you can make a ton of money to start your day and definitely not have to make another deposit before the afternoon/night slate of games
Folks, this is called “building the war chest”. The early slate of games are going to be what we focus on because what we really want is a big, stinky pile of money in our accounts for the primetime afternoon and night games. This is also the part where The VP of Ops’ 19 phone alarms go off one minute apart from each other. So now I’m watching The Warden start to wake up on her monitor because of these 27 alarms. My focus on the board is already in peril. I DON’T NEED THIS TYPE OF ADVERSITY WHILE MAKING MY PRISTINE SLATE! AND I KNOW THERE’S ANOTHER ALARM ABOUT TO GO OFF AND WHEN IT DOES I’M GOING T—-GODFUCKINGDAMNIT!!!!
Chill Out
Heyyyyyyy, we’re chill, we’re chill. No, I did not charge up the stairs, dump kerosene on my wife’s phone/never-ending-alarm-clock-device, set it on fire, and then stand over it panting with rageful eyes watching it burn in front of my horrified wife. I didn’t do that! Can you say self-restraint? (We have real concerns.)
Nope, I simply walked (stomped) upstairs and politely (through gritted teeth) asked the VP of Ops if she would kindly turn the alarms off on her cellular telephone device. When she replied in the affirmative, I thanked her and gently returned downstairs. BACK TO THE LAB!
Early Slate Impressions
Maryland at Michigan (-17):
I love betting on Michigan because I love rooting for Michigan. If you’re not betting on teams you actually want to root for, then please get off the uncomfortable couch that my wife and I got suckered into buying and leave. Yes, I’m trying to pick games that I can win money on, but uh…I also wanna have fun! I freaking love having fun! (Reason #472: Why Jimmy’s Bank Account Isn’t Where He Wants It To Be). But, I don’t love this line. Maryland is undefeated, and while I think Michigan is really good this year, they haven’t played a real opponent yet. Is Maryland a real opponent? I think they’re alright (why? Just because of their record?) Wait…why do I think they’re alright? Check their wins on the ESPN app and…hmmm…Maryland has only beaten Buffalo, Charlotte, and SMU. SMU might be an okay win, but they did fire their coach last year so they can’t be that good. And (reading the ESPN preview of the game now) Maryland’s defense has gotten torched through the air the past two games.
And, it’s going to be THE early game on FOX. Yeah, we’re betting on this.
Now since I don’t absolutely LOVE the spread on this game, I want to pair the Michigan moneyline (-850) with something that will get us close to even odds. The O/U is 64.5…which is high still, and I’m trying to focus on bets I CAN ACTUALLY WIN BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN LOSING A LOT LATELY (which is exactly why this is a great idea for a blog. Who wouldn’t want to read a losers manifesto?!) I’ve got the bet, guys. I’ve got it.
Parlay the Michigan Moneyline with Ronnie Bell anytime TD scorer and we’re getting that at a lovely -120 odds. Michigan will win this game, and they’re going to throw the ball LIKE CRAZY on this shitty Maryland passing defense (that you just found out because you read the game preview on the ESPN app) and Ronnie Bell is Michigan’s best receiver. Boom.
Bet: Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD Parlay (-120)
Kent State at Georgia (-44.5):
Georgia is an absolute psychokiller of a program right now, and I’ve won money on them every week I’ve bet them so far this year which means that will go on forever. FOLLOW THE TRENDS!
Something I think that I’ve learned this year (oh here we go! This drooling dolt has cracked the code!) I used to be really scared to bet huge favorites like this early in the season. At first blush, it seems insane to bet on a team, no matter how good they are, to beat another by 40 or 50 points like you see a lot in Alabama and Georgia lines. But, these teams deserve these lines and I think, if anything, they might be a little low because people like me are reluctant to bet on them if they’re EVEN higher. That’s logical, right? (Wrong.) So I’m actually getting Georgia at a value here. Plus they’re at home and have like a thousand 5-stars going against Kent State. Kent State?!? (It’s sad that you’re concluding that this simple of thinking is going to beat Vegas. If you win, it’s pure luck and you won’t admit it.)
Bet: Georgia -44.5
Clemson (-7.5) at Wake Forest:
I know I’m going to lose this game. Whichever side I bet, I’m going to lose this. I have actually watched Clemson in multiple games this year (doesn’t matter, you’re not a scout) and I think D.J. Uiagalelei is in his own head too much to be the quarterback that we thought he’d be after that first game he had against Notre Dame TWO YEARS AGO. He was a huge recruit and looked awesome in that first game, but since then has kinda’ sucked. He was awful last year, and then this year has looked very pedestrian. The Clemson offense seems to be making calls to protect him, rather than unleash him and I know what that looks like (you don’t) because that’s the Bears Mitch Trubisky offense.
So I kinda’ want to take Wake Forest. They have a veteran quarterback in Sam Hartman who…um, I’ve heard of. Gotta be a good sign if I’ve heard of the quarterback and vaguely remember analysts speaking of him in glowing terms (relying on hazy, nondescript memories is a surefire way to make winning bets!). Plus, Wake Forest was good last year, and are ranked 21st so far this year. Yes, Clemson is ranked 5th, but their quarterback…just put in the stud freshman!
So I’m ready to hit Wake Forest. But…it’s Clemson. Their defense is still LOADED and (ESPN preview alert) Wake Forest hasn’t beaten them in 13 years. Are we really going to bet on the basketball school with the quarterback I’ve kinda heard of to beat the 5th ranked team in the country for the first time in 14 years?
Bet: Clemson (-7.5)
Wrapping Up
I feel good about this slate! It feels realistic because I’m not pairing together long-shots chasing long-odds hoping to make money quick. That’s not how this works. We’re here to move the chains. Little by little. Run the ball. ONE PLAY AT A TIME! ONE BET AT A TIME!
Early Slate:
- Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD
- Georgia (-44.5)
- Clemson (-7.5)
- Yes, we will also be parlaying these 3 bets together because that’s fun and does have long odds and shut up.
OUR WORLD:
There’s a new show out on Netflix about Jeffrey Dahmer called “Monster: the Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and that fact that it exists makes me feel really gross. I am aware that we live in a murderer-obsessed society right now, and that The VP of Ops is a charter member of that society, but at some point doesn’t it more than seem that we’re glorifying them? Aren’t we just glorifying them at this point?
I may be justifying my past interested in stories about murderers (continue) but the documentaries that I’ve watched on them have a different feel about them than a manicured show from Ryan Murphy and starring Evan Peters and other actors and actresses I’ve seen but can’t name off the top of my head. A documentary about the Golden State killer that’s interviewing the actual victims and detectives that were actually INVOLVED in these crimes acts as a blessing for me to watch them without feeling like a guilt-ridden dope.
Between friends telling me the first episode was the most disturbing show they’ve ever seen, and the trailer that made me want to take a shower, I’m going to pass on the Dahmer show. He’s a real-life Michael Myers, but worse, and now there’s a show about it that has the victim’s families up in arms. What part of this is appealing?
This obsession with murder content is hitting the “wait, why are we totally okay watching and, therefore, celebrating this?”-tipping point. I hope, at least. (Explain to us again why you loving “The Patient” is different…)
LETS LOVE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:
The Peloton app. It’s just awesome. I know this isn’t insightful or whatever, but I pay $13 per month to have unlimited classes by awesome trainers in cycling, strength training, stretching, yoga, running, and more. I just think it’s great.
LETS HATE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:
Pat McAfee’s outfit schtick is tired and lame. He’s edgy or funny because he wears a tank top and a gold chain under a sport coat on Gameday? He’s entering the land of “the funny guy who never really makes you laugh.”
K bye.
Jimmy's Chair 