College Football Betting System and Murder

MY WORLD:

You want a real peek behind the curtain? You want to join me in the lab?  Jimmy, you ask, how do you come up with such pristine betting slates week after week after week after week?!?!?  Well, because I love my readers (reader…you love your Dad, Jimmy) I’m going to walk you through the exact process I go through to make my gambling picks for this weekend’s slate of college football games.  Please prepare yourself for some heavy mathematics talk, as there are complicated models, and systems, and excel pivot tables involved in the Jimmyschair gambling process. 

Pull up the Fanduel and ESPN Apps

Jesus, I’ve lost people already, haven’t I?  I KNEW THE TECHNICALITIES WOULD TRIP PEOPLE UP!  So, you open your phone and you tap the Fanduel picture and the ESPN picture (he thinks his readers are the kind of people who have to wear helmets all the time!). This very critical first step of building a gambling slate consists of scanning the early games and also seeing which games are on television.  Who wants to gamble on games they can’t watch?  I mean, don’t get me wrong, I do gamble on games I don’t watch, but I need the MAIN game I’m gambling on to include a few bets that I can watch break my heart live.

Focus on the Early Slate (11am) of Games so you can make a ton of money to start your day and definitely not have to make another deposit before the afternoon/night slate of games

Folks, this is called “building the war chest”.  The early slate of games are going to be what we focus on because what we really want is a big, stinky pile of money in our accounts for the primetime afternoon and night games.  This is also the part where The VP of Ops’ 19 phone alarms go off one minute apart from each other. So now I’m watching The Warden start to wake up on her monitor because of these 27 alarms.  My focus on the board is already in peril.  I DON’T NEED THIS TYPE OF ADVERSITY WHILE MAKING MY PRISTINE SLATE!  AND I KNOW THERE’S ANOTHER ALARM ABOUT TO GO OFF AND WHEN IT DOES I’M GOING T—-GODFUCKINGDAMNIT!!!!

Chill Out

Heyyyyyyy, we’re chill, we’re chill.  No, I did not charge up the stairs, dump kerosene on my wife’s phone/never-ending-alarm-clock-device, set it on fire, and then stand over it panting with rageful eyes watching it burn in front of my horrified wife.  I didn’t do that!  Can you say self-restraint?  (We have real concerns.) 

Nope, I simply walked (stomped) upstairs and politely (through gritted teeth) asked the VP of Ops if she would kindly turn the alarms off on her cellular telephone device.  When she replied in the affirmative, I thanked her and gently returned downstairs.  BACK TO THE LAB!

Early Slate Impressions

Maryland at Michigan (-17):

I love betting on Michigan because I love rooting for Michigan.  If you’re not betting on teams you actually want to root for, then please get off the uncomfortable couch that my wife and I got suckered into buying and leave.  Yes, I’m trying to pick games that I can win money on, but uh…I also wanna have fun!  I freaking love having fun! (Reason #472: Why Jimmy’s Bank Account Isn’t Where He Wants It To Be).  But, I don’t love this line.  Maryland is undefeated, and while I think Michigan is really good this year, they haven’t played a real opponent yet.  Is Maryland a real opponent?  I think they’re alright (why? Just because of their record?) Wait…why do I think they’re alright?  Check their wins on the ESPN app and…hmmm…Maryland has only beaten Buffalo, Charlotte, and SMU.  SMU might be an okay win, but they did fire their coach last year so they can’t be that good.  And (reading the ESPN preview of the game now) Maryland’s defense has gotten torched through the air the past two games.

And, it’s going to be THE early game on FOX.  Yeah, we’re betting on this.

Now since I don’t absolutely LOVE the spread on this game, I want to pair the Michigan moneyline (-850) with something that will get us close to even odds.  The O/U is 64.5…which is high still, and I’m trying to focus on bets I CAN ACTUALLY WIN BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN LOSING A LOT LATELY (which is exactly why this is a great idea for a blog.  Who wouldn’t want to read a losers manifesto?!) I’ve got the bet, guys.  I’ve got it.

Parlay the Michigan Moneyline with Ronnie Bell anytime TD scorer and we’re getting that at a lovely -120 odds.  Michigan will win this game, and they’re going to throw the ball LIKE CRAZY on this shitty Maryland passing defense (that you just found out because you read the game preview on the ESPN app) and Ronnie Bell is Michigan’s best receiver.  Boom.

Bet: Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD Parlay (-120)

Kent State at Georgia (-44.5):

Georgia is an absolute psychokiller of a program right now, and I’ve won money on them every week I’ve bet them so far this year which means that will go on forever.  FOLLOW THE TRENDS! 

Something I think that I’ve learned this year (oh here we go!  This drooling dolt has cracked the code!) I used to be really scared to bet huge favorites like this early in the season.  At first blush, it seems insane to bet on a team, no matter how good they are, to beat another by 40 or 50 points like you see a lot in Alabama and Georgia lines.  But, these teams deserve these lines and I think, if anything, they might be a little low because people like me are reluctant to bet on them if they’re EVEN higher.  That’s logical, right? (Wrong.)  So I’m actually getting Georgia at a value here.  Plus they’re at home and have like a thousand 5-stars going against Kent State.  Kent State?!?  (It’s sad that you’re concluding that this simple of thinking is going to beat Vegas.  If you win, it’s pure luck and you won’t admit it.)

Bet:  Georgia -44.5

Clemson (-7.5) at Wake Forest:

I know I’m going to lose this game.  Whichever side I bet, I’m going to lose this.  I have actually watched Clemson in multiple games this year (doesn’t matter, you’re not a scout) and I think D.J. Uiagalelei is in his own head too much to be the quarterback that we thought he’d be after that first game he had against Notre Dame TWO YEARS AGO.  He was a huge recruit and looked awesome in that first game, but since then has kinda’ sucked.  He was awful last year, and then this year has looked very pedestrian.  The Clemson offense seems to be making calls to protect him, rather than unleash him and I know what that looks like (you don’t) because that’s the Bears Mitch Trubisky offense.

So I kinda’ want to take Wake Forest.  They have a veteran quarterback in Sam Hartman who…um, I’ve heard of.  Gotta be a good sign if I’ve heard of the quarterback and vaguely remember analysts speaking of him in glowing terms (relying on hazy, nondescript memories is a surefire way to make winning bets!). Plus, Wake Forest was good last year, and are ranked 21st so far this year.  Yes, Clemson is ranked 5th, but their quarterback…just put in the stud freshman!

So I’m ready to hit Wake Forest.  But…it’s Clemson.  Their defense is still LOADED and (ESPN preview alert) Wake Forest hasn’t beaten them in 13 years.  Are we really going to bet on the basketball school with the quarterback I’ve kinda heard of to beat the 5th ranked team in the country for the first time in 14 years?

Bet: Clemson (-7.5)

Wrapping Up

I feel good about this slate!  It feels realistic because I’m not pairing together long-shots chasing long-odds hoping to make money quick.  That’s not how this works.  We’re here to move the chains.  Little by little.  Run the ball. ONE PLAY AT A TIME!  ONE BET AT A TIME! 

Early Slate:

  • Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD
  • Georgia (-44.5)
  • Clemson (-7.5)
  • Yes, we will also be parlaying these 3 bets together because that’s fun and does have long odds and shut up.

OUR WORLD:

There’s a new show out on Netflix about Jeffrey Dahmer called “Monster: the Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and that fact that it exists makes me feel really gross.  I am aware that we live in a murderer-obsessed society right now, and that The VP of Ops is a charter member of that society, but at some point doesn’t it more than seem that we’re glorifying them?  Aren’t we just glorifying them at this point?

I may be justifying my past interested in stories about murderers (continue) but the documentaries that I’ve watched on them have a different feel about them than a manicured show from Ryan Murphy and starring Evan Peters and other actors and actresses I’ve seen but can’t name off the top of my head.  A documentary about the Golden State killer that’s interviewing the actual victims and detectives that were actually INVOLVED in these crimes acts as a blessing for me to watch them without feeling like a guilt-ridden dope.

Between friends telling me the first episode was the most disturbing show they’ve ever seen, and the trailer that made me want to take a shower, I’m going to pass on the Dahmer show.  He’s a real-life Michael Myers, but worse, and now there’s a show about it that has the victim’s families up in arms.  What part of this is appealing? 

This obsession with murder content is hitting the “wait, why are we totally okay watching and, therefore, celebrating this?”-tipping point.  I hope, at least.  (Explain to us again why you loving “The Patient” is different…)

LETS LOVE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

The Peloton app.  It’s just awesome.  I know this isn’t insightful or whatever, but I pay $13 per month to have unlimited classes by awesome trainers in cycling, strength training, stretching, yoga, running, and more.  I just think it’s great.

LETS HATE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

Pat McAfee’s outfit schtick is tired and lame.  He’s edgy or funny because he wears a tank top and a gold chain under a sport coat on Gameday?  He’s entering the land of “the funny guy who never really makes you laugh.”

K bye.

Fake Home Improvements and College Football Check-In

MY WORLD: 

I just paid $175 to have my driveway painted black and now I’m going to dress up as a raccoon and call animal control in the hopes that they’ll think I’m actually a raccoon and shoot me.  I know it’s not paint (then why did you say paint?) but whatever the Irish guys who just seal-whatevered my driveway with definitely makes no difference to the “lifespan” of my driveway.  What was gonna happen?  If I didn’t have old Irish guys dump black (don’t say paint) sealant shit on my driveway, would my driveway have just POOF disappeared?  Like, I’d come home one day and there’d just be a sinkhole to the hell I belong in because I didn’t have Maurice O’Reagan kick a bucket of black bullshit down my perfectly not-going-anywhere driveway? 

I guess it looks better black than the faded gray it was before, but I’m not even sure if that’s true of if I’m just trying to convince myself of that because of the money I spent.  And this is what it’s like to own a home in the suburbs—spending money on stuff for the sake of “I guess we have to do this?” and then convincing yourself afterwards that you weren’t taken for a ride.  What else, you ask, have I spent money on here that I’m pretty sure did nothing other than allow me to say “yeah, you’ve just gotta do that when you own a home”?  Oh, I’ve got some DOOZIES!

Reinforcing a wall

When we moved in our inspector told us that a foundational wall “might” be kinda cracking and that we “may” want to look into getting that checked out.  GEE, THANKS FOR THE SPECIFICS MR. INSPECTOR!  So I called four “Is my house gonna fall down cuz of this wall thing”-companies to come over and check if my house was going to fall down cuz of this wall thing.  Thankfully, all four of these companies had WILDLY different opinions and offers on potential remedies.  Comforting!

So, I went with the company that I had heard of the most before (the ones with the billboards?). Basically, I picked the company responsible for potentially reinforcing a wall that could lead to the rest of my house crumbling based on having seen their billboards before.  So what did I pay for?

The company whose billboards I remembered sent two guys over to drill four steel beams into the left wall of my garage.  The big screws they used to screw the beams into the wall only went in part of the way, so now these screws just stick out and all I think is “are these beams even in the wall?”  Two-plus years later I’m convinced that I paid a billboard company five figures to rest some steel beams against my garage wall (yeah, you’ve just gotta buy steel beams to rest against a wall when you own a home).

Seeding your yard.

There is no doubt in my mind that all yard seed is are pebbles that fat guys named Scott stomped on and put in a green bag.  Over the two-plus years I’ve been here now, I’ve spent hundreds of dollars on yard seed and my yard looks exactly as mediocre as it did when I moved in.  Want to know how I look and sound when going into a hardware store to buy yard seed?

“Hey,” says the walking booger in the stained t-shirt.

“Hello Booger, how may I help you today?” Responded the trim older gentleman in the bright red Ace Hardware vest

“You give bag. I give card,” slobbered the booger.

“A bag of yard seed, yes!  I think you should go with whichever one I point to because I’m a trim older gentleman wearing a red vest and you, as you well know, are a booger.  So I’m going to give you the more expensive one that is the same as all the rest, but has a nicer picture on the bag!  You like pictures, don’t you?”

“I like pitchers!”

And then I give my credit card to the cashier who proceeds to run it and spit on it before handing it back to my smiling, snot-like face.

“Thank you for bag!”

“Thank you for being a booger with a credit card!”

Getting drainage units checked yearly.

My house has a sophisticated drainage system that does need to be checked by the company that installed it once a year, but does not, unfortunately, stop my basement from being flooded like it was the first year we moved in.  Before we moved in, I noticed stains on the basement floorboards and asked if there had ever been ever flooding.  I knew there had been, but was hoping that the person who would only get paid if I bought the house would lie to me.  And guess what?  He lied to me!  YAY!!!!

Mr. “Those aren’t stains on the floorboards, those are designs!” told me all about how the basement had been dry ever since the previous owners had NASA install this drainage system.  The only drawback is that I had to have NASA, astronauts and all, come out once a year to walk around my basement, say “it’s fine” and then charge me $200.  It was cool when our basement flooded after the “It’s Fine” Astronaut gave his stamp of approval.  But not as cool as me calling and paying this guy AFTER my temporary basement lap pool incident, and thinking that it’s doing anything other than giving me the ability to tell someone that I had my drainage system checked.

There’s a block party on our block this Saturday and there’s no chance I won’t tell some guy I just met that I just had my drainage system checked. 

OUR WORLD:

I love college football and so I’m going to write about it more.  If you don’t like sports, stop reading now and please do not text me that I should stop writing about sports in this section because it’s my goddamn blog and I MAKE THE DECISIONS HERE.

The things I would do to go to a college football tailgate this weekend would horrify most of the readers of this blog (oh no, don’t horrify all 4 of them!).  Mid-September, quarter-zip weather is meant to be spent on grassy fields with a plastic cup (full of juice?!) in one hand, and a cornhole bag in the other.  College football comes back in late August, but it’s not really BACK until we’re all finally able to turn off our AC, open the windows, and argue with your wife who prefers you to keep the windows closed because “all of the bugs” come in when the windows are open.  And guys, guess what?  I had that argument with my wife a mere 3 days ago!  COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS OFFICIALLY BACK!

In honor of getting through the first three weeks of “wait, who’s good?” I’d like to go through some questions, statements, and predictions I have about the college football landscape.

First, THE QUESTIONS

How can Notre Dame be in the midst of ANOTHER season without a stud quarterback?

This is the school of Joe Montana and Touchdown Jesus, and I don’t care how long ago that was, how can their best quarterback be a guy named Tyler who throws every ball like he’s apologizing?  “Here sorry!”  Hand way up, I hate Notre Dame (Jesus knows…which is why the Bears will suck forever), but their tradition and uniforms are on the top tier of the college football world, and isn’t that what attracts high-level recruits?  It seemingly does for them on the other side of the ball, and tight ends, and o-lineman, but not quarterback?  How can a recruiting pitch that goes: “Hey Troy, we have the best offensive line in the country, a rotation of first round tight ends who can’t wait to be huge and catch everything for you, great looking uniforms, every game televised on NB-fuckin-C, and Joe Montana as an alum.  So, tell me again why you’re picking Penn State over us?” 

Or how about nabbing ANY ONE of the countless starting quarterback transfers that switched schools over the past couple years?  Hey Notre Dame fans, how would you like Caleb Williams, Quinn Ewers, Kedon Slovis, Dillon Gabriel, or Jaxson Dart look as your starting quarterback right about now?  You were SO sold on Tyler “Wait, No!” Buchner that you couldn’t beat out Pitt or Ole Miss for a top-tier QB transfer?  Cool, your defense and tight ends are good, but they’re not Georgia/Bama-WOW, and until they are, dream on about being any sort of real competitor with this rotation of forgettable quarterbacks.

Is Anthony Richardson incredible or bad?

I have no idea how you go from looking like a better Cam Newton against a well-coached Utah team one week to a worse Tyler Buchner (didn’t you already dump on this kid enough?!) against a well-coached Kentucky team the next. 

When is Clemson going to be honest with themselves about the D.J. Uiagalelei game at Notre Dame from 2 years ago?

Can we finally conclude that game was just a fluke?  He looked amazing then, and I’m also shocked that he hasn’t turned into the next surefire Top 10 QB to come out of Clemson, but we’ve seen enough now, right?  He’s the Jay Cutler of college football—there’s BIGTIME talent there, but there’s also a parade of excuses to explain away his countless mistakes.  Last year it was the o-line and receivers and him losing his confidence, but through two games this year it’s clear that not much is better.  How can you tell?  His coaches are trying to protect him with their play-calling and the analysts calling the game are talking about how he “just needs to regain his confidence.”  As a Bears fan who has spent my entire fandom unearthing excuses for poor quarterback play, I know ‘em when I see ‘em and I’m seeing these types of excuses with D.J. and Clemson.  When’s the last quarterback you saw regain lost confidence?  The great ones never lose it.

Now, THE STATEMENTS

USC has the best coach-quarterback-receiver trio in the country.

Goddamnit I hate writing this, but I bet on Stanford this past weekend because I hate USC and wanted them to lose (sound betting strategy).  They did not lose.  They were not close to losing.  Their offense had the “we’re going to score whenever we feel like it”-look.  Every receiver was wide open on every route and every pass was right on the money.  If you haven’t watched their offense, you haven’t seen the best passing attack in college football yet.  It’s terrifying.  Caleb Williams is the best quarterback in the country, Jordan Addison is the best receiver in the country, and Lincoln Riley is the best playcaller in the country.  THAT FUCKING SUCKS FOR UCLA FANS LIKE ME!!!

I don’t know if their defense is any good, but that offensive trio of coach-qb-wr will make all fanbases going against it think their best chance is “maybe we’ll just get lucky and a rogue Russian missile will hit the side of this stadium so they’ll have to cancel this game?”

Bryce Young is a fantastic college quarterback who will be a fantastic backup pro quarterback.

What does he do that’s GREAT?  He has great composure, I agree.  We’ve seen it against Auburn last year and against Texas this past weekend, where he doesn’t freak out with his team down late.  That’s a nice attribute to have, but it doesn’t make you an elite quarterback at the next level.  He’s athletic, but not electric.  His arm is good, but he doesn’t make wow throws.  He’s really small.  Like, the kind of small that has never succeeded in the NFL.  Who is his comp?  Or who’s even close?  Right now, the closest guys to his size starting in the league are Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, but both of those guys are thick enough to take hits.  I also think Bryce is just as short as Kyler without his body or moves.  He’s Charlie Ward 2.0 and there’s a reason Charlie won the Heisman and STILL opted to play in the NBA over the NFL.  He doesn’t just look skinny, he looks short AND skinny (hey, you’re short!)

ESPN has to do the hard thing and stop letting Lee Corso talk on the live portion of “College Gameday”.

When I was younger it was easy making fun of Corso stumble over his words because I didn’t understand the nature of ESPN’s predicament.  Their beloved gameday host had a stroke and to help boost his mindset and recovery, they allowed him back on the air with the help of some awesome co-hosts who LOVE him like family.  It’s a heartwarming story that makes me feel like a dick for the jokes I said and texted about him years prior. 

While my guilt complex grabs the sledgehammer from the garage, can we finally ask ESPN to make the hard decision and tell Lee that it’s time he stop contributing to the live portion of the show?  This sucks to write and I hate that I am (so…don’t?), but he cannot do the job anymore.  Pre-tape his segments for as long as he wants to do that, but putting him on the live show and watching him struggle like this is like watching your elderly family member get into a car you know they shouldn’t be driving anymore and telling your sister, “I’m not gonna be the one to take that away from him.”  Eventually, something really bad happens that’ll make you think “we probably should’ve taken that away from him.”

Finally, THE PREDICTIONS

Nebraska is going to beat Oklahoma this Saturday.

My Dad always told me that you never want to fight someone with nothing to lose.  When a team gets to the point where every game has the potential to determine whether their coach is fired or not, it’s already too late.  Especially in college, that type of scrutiny and resulting pressure is hard to overcome without ELITE-level talent.  Nebraska has talent, but not elite, and that’s why they buckled and Scott Frost got fired.

So now they have an interim coach who probably has no chance to retain the job long-term, and a group of players who have been given up on.  College football is awesome because cheesy storylines and motivation and passion CAN carry a group of less-talented 19 year-olds past the group of more-talented 19 year-olds.  Nebraska is a home double-digit underdog against an old rival with a shiny new coach and quarterback.  This is Nebraska’s new start and their quarterback, Casey Thompson, threw for 5 TDs against Oklahoma last year while at Texas in a game that they should have won.    Nebraska has the players to win, and nothing to lose.

USC is making the playoff and Caleb Williams is winning the Heisman.

Their toughest remaining conference games are against Utah, and UCLA.  So they’re winning the Pac-12 unless Utah goes into Utah-mode where they beat teams they’re not as talented as because Kyle Whittingham is a Top 5 coach in the country (he is).  But the three most important positions in college football are Coach, Quarterback, and Receiver and that’s why I will not be betting against them for the rest of the year.  Last year, Alabama had some holes on their roster, but they were able to make the title game because they had Nick Saban, Bryce Young, and Jameson Williams.  That’s this year’s USC team.

Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison will both be taken in the Top 15 of whichever draft they’re in, and Lincoln Riley has never had an offense short of incredible.  Pssst…Jordan Addison is the best receiver Riley has ever gotten to work with.  The only defense that could slow them down is Notre Dame in their last game of the year, but there’s no chance you’re betting on the Notre Dame team that just lost to Marshall to come up and beat the Heisman trophy winner.

Georgia is going to repeat as National Champion in a blowout title game victory.

Their defense looks just as good as last year, and their offense is better because their tight ends are terrifying and Stetson Bennett is a good college quarterback.  Although, how hard is it really to be a good college quarterback when you have nine tight ends who are 6’7”, 260lbs who run a 4.4?  (Ask Notre Dame!)

LETS LOVE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

Taking a 20 minute nap, waking up and feeling like you just got a full 8 hours.

LETS HATE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

Napping.  It’s for babies.

MY BABY IS SO CUTE AND I LOVE HER SO MUCH MOMENT:

The warden has started smiling at me and that’s a really cool moment.  Yesterday, she did it when I was pretending I was a DJ and she was the mixing board (?) the thing DJ’s use to make the wicka-wicka sounds?  You know what I’m saying.  I was the DJ and I was pretending her tummy was the record that makes the wicka-wicka sound.  Shut up, she smiled.

MY BABY IS SO CUTE AND I LOVE HER SO MUCH, BUT…MOMENT:

A couple nights ago, she wasn’t crying, but more like yelling for about two straight hours.  For the first ten minutes of her “ahhh!” I thought it was kinda’ funny and was relieved that it wasn’t rolling scream cries.  I thought “hey, she has graduated from scream cries to just hearing how her voice sounds.”  But after two straight hours of hearing the tiny human in the rocking swing yell “AHHHH!!!!” I, too, was rocking back and forth yelling “AHHHH!!!!”

JIMMY GAMBLES:

I’m going to start keeping track of my weekend picks for you because I’m feeling like I’ve been hot and I want to get the proper credit for that. If you followed my last post, you’d remember that I told you to bet the Bears over the Niners and that was SPOT ON BECAUSE I’M A GODDAMN GAMBLING GENIUS WHO NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT. So…since NOBODY has congratulated me on that great call, I will be keeping track going forward.  This, ladies and gentlemen, can also be called “the time Jimmy jinxed the rest of his future bets”:

Georgia (-24.5) v. South Carolina

Nebraska (+11) v. Oklahoma

            -Sprinkle the moneyline here

BYU (+3.5) v. Oregon

Washington (-3.5) v. Michigan State

UTSA (+12.5) v. Texas

K bye.