College Football Betting System and Murder

MY WORLD:

You want a real peek behind the curtain? You want to join me in the lab? Jimmy, you ask, how do you come up with such pristine betting slates week after week after week after week?!?!? Well, because I love my readers (reader…you love your Dad, Jimmy) I’m going to walk you through the exact process I go through to make my gambling picks for this weekend’s slate of college football games. Please prepare yourself for some heavy mathematics talk, as there are complicated models, and systems, and excel pivot tables involved in the Jimmyschair gambling process.

Pull up the Fanduel and ESPN Apps

Jesus, I’ve lost people already, haven’t I? I KNEW THE TECHNICALITIES WOULD TRIP PEOPLE UP! So, you open your phone and you tap the Fanduel picture and the ESPN picture (he thinks his readers are the kind of people who have to wear helmets all the time!). This very critical first step of building a gambling slate consists of scanning the early games and also seeing which games are on television. Who wants to gamble on games they can’t watch? I mean, don’t get me wrong, I do gamble on games I don’t watch, but I need the MAIN game I’m gambling on to include a few bets that I can watch break my heart live.

Focus on the Early Slate (11am) of Games so you can make a ton of money to start your day and definitely not have to make another deposit before the afternoon/night slate of games

Folks, this is called “building the war chest”. The early slate of games are going to be what we focus on because what we really want is a big, stinky pile of money in our accounts for the primetime afternoon and night games. This is also the part where The VP of Ops’ 19 phone alarms go off one minute apart from each other. So now I’m watching The Warden start to wake up on her monitor because of these 27 alarms. My focus on the board is already in peril. I DON’T NEED THIS TYPE OF ADVERSITY WHILE MAKING MY PRISTINE SLATE! AND I KNOW THERE’S ANOTHER ALARM ABOUT TO GO OFF AND WHEN IT DOES I’M GOING T—-GODFUCKINGDAMNIT!!!!

Chill Out

Heyyyyyyy, we’re chill, we’re chill. No, I did not charge up the stairs, dump kerosene on my wife’s phone/never-ending-alarm-clock-device, set it on fire, and then stand over it panting with rageful eyes watching it burn in front of my horrified wife. I didn’t do that! Can you say self-restraint? (We have real concerns.)

Nope, I simply walked (stomped) upstairs and politely (through gritted teeth) asked the VP of Ops if she would kindly turn the alarms off on her cellular telephone device. When she replied in the affirmative, I thanked her and gently returned downstairs. BACK TO THE LAB!

Early Slate Impressions

Maryland at Michigan (-17):

I love betting on Michigan because I love rooting for Michigan. If you’re not betting on teams you actually want to root for, then please get off the uncomfortable couch that my wife and I got suckered into buying and leave. Yes, I’m trying to pick games that I can win money on, but uh…I also wanna have fun! I freaking love having fun! (Reason #472: Why Jimmy’s Bank Account Isn’t Where He Wants It To Be). But, I don’t love this line. Maryland is undefeated, and while I think Michigan is really good this year, they haven’t played a real opponent yet. Is Maryland a real opponent? I think they’re alright (why? Just because of their record?) Wait…why do I think they’re alright? Check their wins on the ESPN app and…hmmm…Maryland has only beaten Buffalo, Charlotte, and SMU. SMU might be an okay win, but they did fire their coach last year so they can’t be that good. And (reading the ESPN preview of the game now) Maryland’s defense has gotten torched through the air the past two games.

And, it’s going to be THE early game on FOX. Yeah, we’re betting on this.

Now since I don’t absolutely LOVE the spread on this game, I want to pair the Michigan moneyline (-850) with something that will get us close to even odds. The O/U is 64.5…which is high still, and I’m trying to focus on bets I CAN ACTUALLY WIN BECAUSE I HAVE BEEN LOSING A LOT LATELY (which is exactly why this is a great idea for a blog. Who wouldn’t want to read a losers manifesto?!) I’ve got the bet, guys. I’ve got it.

Parlay the Michigan Moneyline with Ronnie Bell anytime TD scorer and we’re getting that at a lovely -120 odds. Michigan will win this game, and they’re going to throw the ball LIKE CRAZY on this shitty Maryland passing defense (that you just found out because you read the game preview on the ESPN app) and Ronnie Bell is Michigan’s best receiver. Boom.

Bet: Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD Parlay (-120)

Kent State at Georgia (-44.5):

Georgia is an absolute psychokiller of a program right now, and I’ve won money on them every week I’ve bet them so far this year which means that will go on forever. FOLLOW THE TRENDS!

Something I think that I’ve learned this year (oh here we go! This drooling dolt has cracked the code!) I used to be really scared to bet huge favorites like this early in the season. At first blush, it seems insane to bet on a team, no matter how good they are, to beat another by 40 or 50 points like you see a lot in Alabama and Georgia lines. But, these teams deserve these lines and I think, if anything, they might be a little low because people like me are reluctant to bet on them if they’re EVEN higher. That’s logical, right? (Wrong.) So I’m actually getting Georgia at a value here. Plus they’re at home and have like a thousand 5-stars going against Kent State. Kent State?!? (It’s sad that you’re concluding that this simple of thinking is going to beat Vegas. If you win, it’s pure luck and you won’t admit it.)

Bet: Georgia -44.5

Clemson (-7.5) at Wake Forest:

I know I’m going to lose this game. Whichever side I bet, I’m going to lose this. I have actually watched Clemson in multiple games this year (doesn’t matter, you’re not a scout) and I think D.J. Uiagalelei is in his own head too much to be the quarterback that we thought he’d be after that first game he had against Notre Dame TWO YEARS AGO. He was a huge recruit and looked awesome in that first game, but since then has kinda’ sucked. He was awful last year, and then this year has looked very pedestrian. The Clemson offense seems to be making calls to protect him, rather than unleash him and I know what that looks like (you don’t) because that’s the Bears Mitch Trubisky offense.

So I kinda’ want to take Wake Forest. They have a veteran quarterback in Sam Hartman who…um, I’ve heard of. Gotta be a good sign if I’ve heard of the quarterback and vaguely remember analysts speaking of him in glowing terms (relying on hazy, nondescript memories is a surefire way to make winning bets!). Plus, Wake Forest was good last year, and are ranked 21^st so far this year. Yes, Clemson is ranked 5^th, but their quarterback…just put in the stud freshman!

So I’m ready to hit Wake Forest. But…it’s Clemson. Their defense is still LOADED and (ESPN preview alert) Wake Forest hasn’t beaten them in 13 years. Are we really going to bet on the basketball school with the quarterback I’ve kinda heard of to beat the 5^th ranked team in the country for the first time in 14 years?

Bet: Clemson (-7.5)

Wrapping Up

I feel good about this slate! It feels realistic because I’m not pairing together long-shots chasing long-odds hoping to make money quick. That’s not how this works. We’re here to move the chains. Little by little. Run the ball. ONE PLAY AT A TIME! ONE BET AT A TIME!

Early Slate:

Michigan Moneyline + Ronnie Bell Anytime TD
Georgia (-44.5)
Clemson (-7.5)
Yes, we will also be parlaying these 3 bets together because that’s fun and does have long odds and shut up.

OUR WORLD:

There’s a new show out on Netflix about Jeffrey Dahmer called “Monster: the Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and that fact that it exists makes me feel really gross. I am aware that we live in a murderer-obsessed society right now, and that The VP of Ops is a charter member of that society, but at some point doesn’t it more than seem that we’re glorifying them? Aren’t we just glorifying them at this point?

I may be justifying my past interested in stories about murderers (continue) but the documentaries that I’ve watched on them have a different feel about them than a manicured show from Ryan Murphy and starring Evan Peters and other actors and actresses I’ve seen but can’t name off the top of my head. A documentary about the Golden State killer that’s interviewing the actual victims and detectives that were actually INVOLVED in these crimes acts as a blessing for me to watch them without feeling like a guilt-ridden dope.

Between friends telling me the first episode was the most disturbing show they’ve ever seen, and the trailer that made me want to take a shower, I’m going to pass on the Dahmer show. He’s a real-life Michael Myers, but worse, and now there’s a show about it that has the victim’s families up in arms. What part of this is appealing?

This obsession with murder content is hitting the “wait, why are we totally okay watching and, therefore, celebrating this?”-tipping point. I hope, at least. (Explain to us again why you loving “The Patient” is different…)

LETS LOVE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

The Peloton app. It’s just awesome. I know this isn’t insightful or whatever, but I pay $13 per month to have unlimited classes by awesome trainers in cycling, strength training, stretching, yoga, running, and more. I just think it’s great.

LETS HATE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

Pat McAfee’s outfit schtick is tired and lame. He’s edgy or funny because he wears a tank top and a gold chain under a sport coat on Gameday? He’s entering the land of “the funny guy who never really makes you laugh.”

K bye.

Has My Wife Taken Me Prisoner? (6/28/18)

MY WORLD:

The VP and I finished watching “The Staircase” the other night (hold your applause! PLEASE! Standing ovation? CONTROL YOURSELVES!!!) During the second to last episode, I started thinking that I just wanted this show to be over. It’s dark and depressing and sad and scary and why was I watching this? When your “escape” revolves around stories about murder and the terrors of our legal system, it should not come as a surprise when your daily stresses don’t melt away. What happened to having a plop on the couch and sharing but a smile? Perhaps a chuckle or two before bedtime? Up until I was seduced by an older lady, now known as The VP of Ops, at the vulnerable age of 27, I was into happy, and, potentially, emotionally uplifting television. “The Office”, “Parks and Rec” and “Friday Night Lights” were more my speed. Laugh at Andy Dwyer, shed a tear for QB 1 and his decimated spinal chord, and root for Jim to finally tell Pam how he feels. (Sidenote: how many awkward “but I only like you as a friend” confrontations did the Jim/Pam story cause around the country? You know friend-zone guys everywhere were like “if it worked for Jim, it’ll work for me!”) But that all came to an end when my Mrs. Robinson came into the picture…

I remember The VP of Ops telling me that she was into murder when we started dating. It wasn’t concerning in the way of like “Hey Jimmy, I’m into murder because I enjoy murdering people and I’m thinking of murdering you.” It was more in the vein of “I like sitting on a couch with a devious smile on my face while good looking detectives battle personal demons and sexual tension with their co-workers throughout missions for justice.” She didn’t exactly spell it out like that, but when a hot chick is on a date with you, there are NO red flags. ZERO, FOLKS! Seriously, she could’ve pulled out a rusty knife and told me she was into amateur surgery and I would’ve been like “cool, totally!”

Anyway, long story short, unable to resist her wily seduction techniques, The VP roped me in to her world of heavy cream dips and depressing television. Somehow, my television viewing habits have gone from sitcoms and serialized dramas to trashy reality television and murder documentaries. Monday through Thursday over the past few months have consisted of: “The Bachelorette”, “Vanderpump Rules”, “Southern Charm”, “Evil Genius”, “The Staircase”, and “The Keepers”. We spend our weeknights either cackling at functioning alcoholics with undiagnosed personality disorders or silently watching strangers try to cope with the most horrific event of their lives. The VP has turned me into your Aunt Paula. Do you realize I’ve written more about “The Bachelorette” than I have about the Bears? I’M A MAN FOR CHRISSAKE! When does the Netflix doc about The VP murdering my masculinity come out? “Did We Record The Bachelor?”: The true story of a once proud Chicago man’s descent into madness.

What is happening to me? I used to think it was a lame joke when I’d hear older guys talk about how their “wives run the show.” My Dad’s friends would say shit like that and I’d toss a courtesy laugh their way while thinking A) I’m sure that’s not actually true, and B) has anybody actually laughed at that joke? Thing is, I’m beginning to think it wasn’t a joke! The VP doesn’t totally run the show (I’M MY OWN MAN!) but…like…maybe she does, actually. Shit.

Let’s take a look at the last 4 days: I have cooked three of the nights and brought home dinner the third. I then hand washed the pots and pans used for those meals, unloaded and re-loaded the dishwasher. I have run two loads of laundry, bought her a heating pad, and taken out the trash. We have watched episodes “Southern Charm”, “The Bachelorette”, and “The Staircase”. ESPN has not been on our television for one second. I broke the sunglasses that she got for me last week, but haven’t worn my back-up pair because The VP says they’re “disgusting”. So I’ve just been squinting for the past week. Oh, and I gave her an alarmingly asexual back massage last night. (Realization hits as a look of panic washes over Jimmy’s face…) WHAT HAVE I BECOME?!?!

If my Dad’s friends knew what they were saying wasn’t a joke, why were they chuckling?!?! Why weren’t they grabbing me by the shoulders and telling me to save myself before it was too late?!?! “You don’t understand!!!” should’ve been how all of my Dad’s friends greeted me while I was still dating The VP. Folks, I didn’t plan on writing this blog today. What you are reading is a real-time discovery that I may not be the person I thought I was. Stay calm, Jimmy. Stay calm. EVERYBODY STAY CALM!!! Quickly, what are the things I believe I enjoy now that I wasn’t into before The VP plunged her talons into my testosterone supply:

-Oysters: Never even tried an oyster before The VP came into the picture. Now, I get excited when I’m at a place with good oysters. What are in some oysters? Pearls. Who likes pearls? Girls. Shit.

-English muffins: I have a multi-grain english muffin every morning for breakfast now. I used to eat bagels. Close your eyes and imagine Clint Eastwood walking into a dusty diner. When the waitress asks what he’d with his bacon and eggs, what do you think he orders? Without hesitation, it’s a bagel every single time. ENGLISH MUFFIN PROBABLY ISN’T EVEN AN OPTION IN CLINT’S DINER!

-Rolling up my jeans: The VP says it’s “cute”. My brothers and father make fun of me.

-Puppies: Not to say that I used to not like puppies, but I remember a time when I wouldn’t stop EVERYTHING I was doing whenever a puppy came into my field of vision. Now, it’s like a fire drill where I alert everyone around me that there’s a puppy and pray that I’m able to get to it in time to ask for a casual pet. That’s weird.

-Thinking about crying when I’m alone: I’m aware this sounds supremely depressing, but this blog is, if nothing else, honest. Whether it’s job stress or money stress or thinking about murder documentaries or wondering what Belle does all day while I’m gone, I have begun to think about crying when I’m alone. The strangest thing? I kinda’ like it! I never actually cry, but I’ll think to myself “should I pull over and have a quick weep sesh in that Office Depot parking lot?”

These trends are concerning and worth revisiting. (Now Jimmy, anticipate the call you will receive from The VP once she reads this. You’re playing checkers while she’s playing chess!) I’m not a prisoner, guys. Ha. Ha. (Blink twice). To the people who have not seen me in a while, and believe that I am being held captive by my wife, I have a message for you: The VP of Ops is not holding me captive as her prisoner. (Blink twice). She is a sweet and pretty lady that I love very much who deserves the entire whole wide world. (Blink twice). And yes, I am listening to “Keeping Score”, the new Dan + Shay single featuring Kelly Clarkson. It’s a lovely little tune!

(Help).

OUR WORLD:

The reason that city driving is so much more difficult is because everyone who lives in the city, and therefore drive in the city, is so stressed out by EVERYTHING that the slightest ANYTHING can set you off. I feel like a Velociraptor (that’s one word! Who knew?!?) while driving around my neighborhood–ready to plunge through the driver’s side window of my Chevy Equinox and go fangs-first into the next car that leaks into my lane of traffic. Combine the sounds of a constipated toddler with the aggression of a blackout-drunk Crossfit trainer who was just put in the friend zone by his Tinder date; that’s me driving in the city. That’s all of us driving in the city because Chicago, and I imagine all other large cities, is a garbage can overflowing with annoyances. What are some of the other PRIME City annoyances? Let’s take a look:

-The “was that a gunshot?”-sounds: Whenever I’m near the VP of Ops when one of these sounds happens, I immediately say “fireworks.” I play it cool and nonchalant so that she doesn’t worry, but (close your eyes VP) it’s probably gunshots sometimes, right? Who is setting off fireworks on a random Tuesday night in June? Also, you have to go to Wisconsin or Indiana to get fireworks, so what the hell are these sounds? That’s part of living in the city that I’ll never get used to. When I’m walking Belle at night, I say “what was that?” to a not-too-distant sound a minimum of 6 times. When these walks are immediately following a murder documentary, you better believe I contemplate breaking into a full sprint back towards my apartment.

-Walking up to street-parked car in the morning and seeing shards of glass in the distance: If you park on the street in the city your car, sooner or later, will be broken into. There is ZERO chance that it won’t. Trust me, I’ve run the numbers. On the day it is, you’ll be walking down the block your car is on when you’ll notice a pile of shattered turquoise pebbles. Those aren’t exotic city pebbles, though, those are what remains of your passenger-side window. I’ve had this happen twice which means that now, whenever I’m heading down the block my car is on, I have a near heart attack whenever I see a pile of turquoise in the distance. That color, btw, STINKS.

-City dogs and the dog-walkers: Don’t get me wrong, I luh me some doggies (see my puppy love in today’s “My World”). BUT! City dogs, including my own, are much more likely to be hairy psychopaths with crippling anxiety disorders. I don’t blame them, this is what comes with living in the city. However, when you’re having to zig zag across streets to make sure your dog doesn’t get within 500 feet of another hairy LUNATIC, your nerves begin to fray. This morning I took Belle on a 4 block walk and crossed the street no less than 18,000 times to avoid other dogs. Oh, and if you see a “professional” dog walker heading your way, be aware that they think of themselves as the top of the sidewalk food chain and will NEVER cross the street first. Am I just being constantly alpha’d by other dog owners in the game of “who’s going to cross the street first?” Do I call their bluff and play a game of chicken? If you knew Belle, you wouldn’t either.

-The smell of weed EVERYWHERE: I know this makes me sound like a total narc, but it really does smell like weed everywhere in the city. Like, every. single. place. When you’re afraid of weed like I am, this smell immediately triggers a response of panicked breath holding. Remember when you were a kid and your go-to tantrum move was holding your breath until you passed out? That’s me here.

-People: There are so many. Literally, millions and most of them do not abide by my personal code of conduct. It’s infuriating.

LETS LOVE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

I’m just going to lean into this one…

LETS HATE THIS TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME:

Cabbies who drive Uber. I get that they have to adapt, but I feel tricked whenever I get in an Uber and am immediately hit with that “professional cabbie”-smell.

I HAVEN’T GAMBLED YET THIS WEEK. MANY PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW INSPIRING MY SELF-CONTROL IS.

K bye.